Europe’s role in NATO defense planning is changing quickly. In May, the United States informed allies that it would reduce some of the military capabilities committed to the alliance in a crisis. Within weeks, European allies had largely filled the resulting gaps, according to NATO’s top commander.
The main remaining shortfall is strategic bombers, with the United States set to make one aircraft available instead of two. NATO is examining alternative capabilities for other remaining gaps ahead of the Ankara summit.
For European defense manufacturers, the implications extend beyond alliance planning. A larger European role will put more pressure on production capacity and on the executives responsible for scaling it. Europe’s industrial base is already expanding: EU annual ammunition production capacity rose from around 300,000 rounds in 2022 to an estimated 2 million by the end of 2025.
Key Takeaways
- European allies closed most of the NATO Force Model gap within weeks, while industrial capacity will take much longer to adjust.
- Greater pressure on defense manufacturing is likely to increase demand for executives with direct responsibility for scaling production.
- The hiring implications extend beyond the CEO to COOs and VP Operations leaders, as well as senior supply chain executives.
- Boards need to assess executive capacity before production constraints or missed delivery commitments expose the gap.
What Closing the Gap Requires
The industrial pressure predates the latest NATO shift. EU member states’ defense spending reached an estimated €381 billion in 2025, up 11% from the previous year. The scale of the U.S. reductions adds another layer to that environment.
The changes are specific. U.S. F-15 and F-15E fighter availability to NATO drops by a third, to 99 aircraft. Reaper drone availability is cut in half, to 12. Refueling aircraft fall to 63 from 79. Maritime patrol aircraft drop to 15 from 26, and destroyer availability falls to nine from 17. The single submarine carrying cruise missiles is removed from the commitment entirely.
Those figures may be set through alliance planning, but sustaining a larger European role ultimately reaches the industrial base. Existing capabilities can be reallocated, and NATO can pursue alternatives. But greater responsibility over time puts pressure on production capacity and the supplier networks behind it.
The CEO Mandate Is Shifting
A defense manufacturer moving into this phase of demand often needs a different chief executive than the one who built the company to this point. The next stage requires capital deployment decisions and production expansion while existing program commitments continue without interruption. In private equity-backed businesses, the CEO is also expected to professionalize the organization without slowing the technical teams that built its reputation.
Sector pedigree does not answer this. A CEO with deep relationships across European defense ministries may have never run a manufacturing scale-up. A leader from a much larger enterprise may struggle in a company where systems are still immature, and decisions sit close to the founder. Boards need to hire for the stage the company is entering rather than the résumé that reads best in a press release.
COOs Own the Capacity Decision
The CEO sets the plan. Turning that plan into shipped hardware usually falls to the COO. As demand rises, the COO's job accumulates decisions that used to move more slowly: how much capacity to add and how quickly a supplier base can be qualified without compromising the quality controls defense customers expect.
That is a different problem from the one VP Operations solves. A COO owns the capacity strategy across the whole business, from individual facilities to the supplier relationships behind them. VP Operations is the person closest to whether a specific plant or program can hit its numbers this quarter. Treating the two roles as interchangeable can leave part of the operating problem unresolved.
Rheinmetall is a case in point. The company created a standalone Chief Operating Officer position for the first time in January 2025, appointing a nineteen-year company veteran to the role as its order backlog approached €60 billion. The CEO could no longer own both the strategic plan and daily production alignment once growth reached that level.
Operations Leadership Determines Whether Growth Reaches Production
VP Operations searches get treated as functional hires more often than they should be. In a scaling defense manufacturer, that assumption is expensive. These leaders work closest to the point where production plans are tested against actual plant capacity. They know whether a stated production plan is deliverable, and they know which constraint breaks first as volume rises.
The right background depends on the environment. A candidate from high-volume commercial manufacturing brings discipline but may lack exposure to defense program complexity. A candidate from a large prime understands the regulatory context but may never have built operating systems from scratch in a smaller company. Matching a title on a résumé to a title in a job description misses the point. What matters is whether the candidate has already solved this exact production problem somewhere else.
Supply Chain Leadership Becomes the Real Constraint
Final assembly capacity is only part of the constraint for defense manufacturers scaling right now. Supplier capacity and component availability can be equally consequential. What matters is how quickly a company can see its exposure before a shortage turns into a missed delivery date.
Procurement experience alone may be insufficient for organizations facing sustained increases in demand. Companies need supply chain executives who can work directly with constrained suppliers and build real visibility into risk across a multi-country base. They also need people who can make the allocation calls when every program office believes its need is the most urgent.
The Roles Defense Boards Need to Prioritize
These pressures are widening the set of roles that matter to a defense scale-up. The hiring need extends from the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Operating Officer into VP Operations and senior supply chain leadership.
That range matters because scaling pressure never sits with a single executive. A production plan can fail at the CEO's desk, in the COO's capacity decisions, on the plant floor, or somewhere in the supplier base. A board searching for only one of these roles is solving half the problem. Christian & Timbers works with boards and executive teams on senior mandates across these functions.
Why the Executive Market Will Tighten Before Boards Expect It To
The timing matters. European allies closed most of the Force Model gap within weeks of the U.S. notifying them in May. Industrial capacity does not move at that speed, and neither does the executive market behind it.
Expanding a factory takes years. Supplier networks take longer than that to rebuild. Executives who combine defense sector credibility with direct responsibility for a manufacturing scale-up are difficult to find. Searches for Chief Operating Officers or VP Operations leaders with comparable production experience can therefore become especially demanding.
The Question Boards Should Be Asking Now
Europe's defense expansion will be described in budgets and platforms, alongside delivery schedules. Those numbers matter, but they do not answer whether a company has the leadership team to convert demand into delivered hardware on the timeline its customers expect.
Waiting until a missed delivery date exposes the gap leaves a board searching from a position of weakness, competing against firms that started months earlier. Companies that treat this as a talent question early will be better positioned when the next round of defense commitments comes due.
For boards and investors, the question is becoming more immediate: does the organization have the executive capacity to deliver what the next phase will require?
Frequently Asked Questions
- Why does NATO’s Force Model gap matter to defense manufacturers, not just governments?
A larger European role in NATO defense planning adds to the pressure already building across the region’s industrial base. Existing capabilities can be reallocated, and alternative solutions may fill some gaps, but greater European defense responsibility can still increase pressure on production capacity and supplier networks. For boards, that raises a practical question: does the organization have the executive capacity to scale?
- What’s the difference between a COO and a VP of Operations in a scaling defense company?
A COO typically owns capacity strategy across the business, including major investment decisions and the operating structure behind growth. A VP of Operations works closer to plant or program execution, with responsibility for whether production plans can be delivered against actual constraints. In a scaling defense company, the roles address different parts of the operating challenge.
- What experience should boards prioritize when hiring operations leaders for defense manufacturing?
The right profile depends on the company’s stage and operating environment. Boards may need to assess direct responsibility for production scale-up, exposure to regulated programs, experience with constrained supplier networks, and the ability to build operating systems appropriate to the size of the business. A candidate from a large prime may bring different strengths from an executive who has scaled a smaller manufacturer.
- Which executive roles become more important as European defense manufacturing scales?
Executive needs can extend from CEOs and COOs to VP Operations and senior supply chain leaders. CEOs shape the growth agenda and major capital decisions. From there, COOs translate that direction into capacity strategy, while VP Operations leaders carry it down to plant and program execution. Supply chain executives round out the picture, managing risk throughout the supplier base.
About Christian & Timbers’ Aerospace & Defense Practice
Christian & Timbers has placed more than 150 leaders across aerospace, defense and related sectors, spanning Chief Executive Officer and Chief Operating Officer mandates to VP of Operations and VP of Engineering, as well as supply chain leadership. That breadth matters because scaling pressure does not sit with one executive alone. Production plans depend on leaders throughout the organization who can manage the physical constraints behind growth.
